The Best 4th-Quarter QBs in the NFL

Matt Ryan and Tony Romo may be better than you think in crunch time.
I decided to take a look at how current NFL quarterbacks have done in the fourth quarter, since that seems to be the biggest thing talked about every NFL Sunday. Sure, you threw for 300 yards and 3 TDs, but how’d you do when it mattered most?
Taking into account regular-season figures on game-winning drives, fourth-quarter comebacks and TD passes thrown in the 4th quarter and overtime, the formula gave me a ranking that pretty much reads like a longevity of career list. I had to change the methodology to encapsulate how many times they were able to pull of these feats with the amount of opportunities they’ve had. Here’s the original ranking, without anything to factor-in games played:
- Peyton Manning
- Tom Brady
- Drew Brees
- Eli Manning
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Tony Romo
- Carson Palmer
- Philip Rivers
- Jay Cutler
- Matt Ryan
- Matt Schaub
- Joe Flacco
- Michael Vick
- Alex Smith
- Matt Stafford
- Aaron Rodgers
- Josh Freeman
- Sam Bradford
- Andy Dalton
- Chad Henne
- Cam Newton
When using the numbers without taking into account how many games each of the quarterbacks have played, it makes sense someone that has been in the NFL since 1998, Peyton Manning, would be #1. The ranking corresponds closely with the amount of games played, except for someone like Vick who has been in the league since 2001 and is 13th. This isn’t to say Manning and Brady aren’t two of the best in the business in clutch situations, but when you take the amount of fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives relative to the amount of games started, you get a better look at who has done a lot with less time. Also, instead of just going by touchdowns thrown, I used a TD-to-INT ratio in the second go-around. Here’s the final ranking after taking games played into account, indexed from 100:
- Tony Romo 100.0
- Matt Ryan 98.3
- Tom Brady 92.7
- Matt Stafford 91.4
- Peyton Manning 91.1
- Ben Roethlisberger 84.7
- Drew Brees 83.9
- Eli Manning 81.1
- Jay Cutler 79.4
- Josh Freeman 74.5
- Philip Rivers 70.5
- Joe Flacco 69.1
- Andy Dalton 68.8
- Alex Smith 65.9
- Carson Palmer 65.1
- Matt Schaub 64.2
- Aaron Rodgers 63.0
- Michael Vick 62.6
- Sam Bradford 58.1
- Chad Henne 37.9
- Cam Newton 33.2
Most wouldn’t expect to see Romo’s name at #1. He was 2nd in fourth-quarter comebacks per start behind Matt Ryan, 8th in game-winning drives, and 1st in TD-to-INT ratio. Ryan was 1st in comebacks and game-winning drives, but his TD-to-INT (31 to 21) ratio was only good enough for 9th.
Manning dropped to 5th in 4Q comebacks, 4th in game-winning drives and 5th in TD-to-INTs, putting him at #5 overall. Brady stays high at #3, with the aforementioned Vick predictably dropping to #18. Here’s the top and bottom five in each category:
Top 5, 4th-Quarter Comebacks (% of games played)
- Matt Ryan 19.3%
- Tony Romo 18.2%
- Matt Stafford 18.0%
- Eli Manning 17.0%
- Peyton Manning 16.9%
Bottom 3 were Chad Henne (7.5%), Aaron Rodgers (6%) and Cam Newton (5.4%).
Top 5, Game-Winning Drives (% of games played)
- Matt Ryan 27.7%
- Ben Roethlisberger 22.1%
- Matt Stafford 22.0%
- Peyton Manning 21.7%
- Tom Brady 21.5%
Bottom three were Sam Bradford (10.4%), Chad Henne (10.0%) and Cam Newton (5.4%).
Top 5, TD-to-INT ratio in 4th Quarter
- Tony Romo 2.5-1
- Aaron Rodgers 2.39-1
- Drew Brees 2.32-1
- Tom Brady 2.16-1
- Peyton Manning 1.84-1
Bottom three were Cam Newton (1.0), Andy Dalton (0.93) and Chad Henne (0.63).
Again, this is only the regular season. There are cases to be made for guys like Brady, the Manning brothers, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees – all of which had to perform in the postseason to get their coveted Super Bowl rings. However, to compare everyone equally, I used the regular season. The NFL playoffs is a whole other thing that’ll I’ll try to tackle later.
I wanted a good sample size, so I made the cutoff 32 games started – two full NFL seasons. When you add in those that started all of 2012 and 2013 so far, Russell Wilson jumps to #1 overall while Andrew Luck is #2. They’ve certainly started off their careers as two of the most clutch performers in the NFL thus far, and the Seahawks and Colts are certainly reaping the benefits.
There’s no perfect way to determine who’s the best quarterback is late in games because football is a team sport and there’s so many mitigating factors that makes it impossible. Is Tony Romo really the best quarterback in the 4th quarter? General football knowledge tells you no. But is the stigma attached to him overblown? Absolutely. He’s lost his share of close games, but he’s also led 18 fourth-quarter comeback wins in only 99 career starts.
Matt Ryan might be the real star of this study. When it comes to bringing your team back late in the game and leading game-winning drives, there’s no one better. He’s only second because of his TD-to-INT ratio, and it doesn’t look to be hurting him or the Falcons very much. Everyone talks about Brady, Manning and Brees, but with the game on the line right now, give me Matt Ryan.